President Donald Trump appeared to reveal disappointing economic data early in a typo-filled social media message on Friday morning, Feb. 20, 2026, disclosing weak GDP results roughly 40 minutes before their official release while launching another criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
“LOWER INTEREST RATES. ‘Two Late’ Powell is the WORST!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social at 7:50 a.m. ET, seemingly misspelling his usual “Too Late” jab at the Federal Reserve chair. His post came just as the Commerce Department was set to issue fourth-quarter economic figures showing growth had slowed sharply to only 1.4%.
The president’s early post also accused Democrats of contributing to the weak economic performance, claiming the shutdown “cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP” and cautioning against further funding standoffs.
When the official report was published at 8:30 a.m., it confirmed Trump’s bleak preview. The economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2025, a steep decline from the prior quarter’s 4.4 percent pace and well below economists’ forecasts of 2.5 percent to 3 percent.
The premature disclosure is at least the second instance in which Trump has hinted at economic data ahead of its scheduled release. Office of Management and Budget rules prohibit executive branch officials from commenting early and bar public statements until at least 30 minutes after data is published. In January, Trump indirectly signaled upcoming nonfarm payroll numbers, leading the White House to admit to an “inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data.”
The discouraging GDP release poses a major setback for Trump’s economic messaging just days before his state of the union speech. The president has repeatedly touted what he describes as a “booming” economy and said during a Thursday, Feb. 19 event in Georgia that he had “solved” affordability issues.
The economic slowdown was driven in part by the historic 43-day government shutdown that began Oct. 1 and stretched into mid-November. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated the shutdown shaved about 1 percentage point from real GDP growth, while the Congressional Budget Office said it could have reduced annualized growth by as much as two percentage points.
But the shutdown does not fully explain the weaker numbers. Consumer spending, a core engine of the U.S. economy, rose only 2.4% in the fourth quarter—down from a solid 3.5% increase in the third quarter. The slowdown suggests Americans are under financial pressure despite the administration’s claims of economic strength.
Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, cautioned that households with ample income continue driving most spending while lower-income Americans face mounting difficulties tied to elevated costs and higher credit balances.
Compounding the administration’s challenges, another Commerce Department release showed inflation rising in December. The PCE price index climbed 2.9% year-over-year, nearly a full point higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Persistent inflation pressures reduce the likelihood that Powell will cut interest rates at the pace Trump desires.
The timing is politically damaging for Trump. His overall approval rating slipped to 38% in the newest Reuters/Ipsos poll, down from around 50% when he took office in January 2025. Consumer confidence collapsed to 84.5 in January 2026, its lowest level since May 2014 and even weaker than during the worst months of the COVID-19 recession.
For all of 2025, the economy expanded 2.2%, compared with 2.8% in 2024. Despite steady overall growth, employers added only 181,000 jobs throughout 2025—the smallest yearly total outside recession years since 2003. The unemployment rate was 4.3%.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai tried to cast the numbers in a positive light, saying GDP growth “smashed” expert expectations and crediting the president’s policies of tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs for laying the foundation for what he said would be a stronger expansion in 2026.
Some data points showed underlying stability. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—which combine consumer spending and business investment—rose 2.4%, consistent with post-pandemic recovery norms. Martha Gimbel, executive director at Budget Lab, described both consumer and business spending as “reasonably solid” and added: “This is not a disastrous report.”
The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its January meeting indicated policymakers are growing hesitant to cut rates this year. Several even suggested the Federal Reserve might have to raise rates if inflation stays elevated. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted that the combination of slow growth and persistent inflation is heightening tensions between the Federal Reserve’s hawks and doves.