A polling collapse among Republicans and soaring gas prices tied to President Trump’s Iran conflict could trigger a “revolution” against the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, according to NewsNation correspondent at large Geraldo Rivera.
The veteran journalist, who previously supported Trump, issued his dire prediction during an April 15 appearance on “The Daily Take,” warning that continued military engagement and elevated fuel costs could prove politically catastrophic for the president’s party.
“I think if the war persists, and if the price of gas stays where it is or goes higher, there will be a stampede in the midterm elections,” Rivera told host Connell McShane. “I think the cost politically to the president will be profound. I think Republicans will be reeling from a revolution.”
Public sentiment has turned sharply against the military action. A new Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll published May 4 found that 66 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, while about two-thirds disapprove of his handling of the cost of living. Trump’s overall disapproval rating of 62 percent is the highest the survey has recorded since he first took office in 2017.
Rivera emphasized that Trump won the election in part by pledging “no more forever wars” to his MAGA base—a commitment now at odds with the current situation in Iran. For Rivera, this broken promise represents a fundamental breach of trust with Trump’s most loyal supporters.
The president’s blockade strategy in the Strait of Hormuz has hammered American consumers at the pump. While the economic pressure might force Iran to accept presidential terms, McShane acknowledged that American patience appears to be wearing thin.
Trump’s support among his own party has already begun crumbling. A CNN survey found that the share of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance dropped from 52 percent in January to 43 percent by April, while his economic approval rating among Republicans fell 14 points over the same period. Among independents, crucial swing voters in competitive districts, the picture is even bleaker.
Rivera’s warning marks a notable evolution in his position. Just eight days earlier, he appeared on “TMZ Live” to discuss Trump’s Iran strategy with a more supportive tone. During that April 7 appearance, Rivera called Trump’s threat to end Iran’s civilization “exaggerated” and expressed confidence that the Department of War would never authorize strikes on civilian targets. He also dismissed concerns that Trump would deploy nuclear weapons.
But Rivera’s tone has shifted dramatically. His latest comments came as the U.S. and Israel continued waging war against Iran, with Trump having set an 8 p.m. ceasefire deadline that included threats to bomb power plants and other critical infrastructure. While a two-week ceasefire was ultimately announced, the economic damage from disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to ripple through global markets.
The longtime broadcaster, who appeared alongside Trump on “Celebrity Apprentice,” seems convinced that the president’s typical bombastic style will not overcome voter frustration if economic conditions don’t improve quickly. His suggestion that Republicans could face a “revolution” at the ballot box represents one of the most pessimistic forecasts yet from someone within Trump’s extended political orbit.
As the Iran conflict drags on, Rivera’s warning has only grown more urgent. On April 18, Iran reversed course and re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, demanding the U.S. lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports before allowing commercial shipping to resume. Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, said Iran had gotten “a little cute” and warned that if no deal is reached before the ceasefire expires, “we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.”
With the Strait once again shuttered, gas prices showing no sign of relief — the national average hit $4.46 a gallon on May 4, up from $2.98 before the war began, according to American Automobile Association — and peace talks stalled, the 2026 midterms loom as a potential referendum on Trump’s Iran policy and its devastating domestic economic consequences. Analysts at Eurasia Group warned that “$5 gas is basically baked in” given the continued closure of the waterway. Trump’s attempted workaround, dubbed “Project Freedom,” deployed more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members to guide vessels through the strait, but oil prices rose further rather than falling, and Iran declared the operation a ceasefire violation. As of May 5, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted the ceasefire was “not over,” though few observers expect a swift resolution.